Nepal crisis mishandled by world community will lead to confrontation. By Hem Raj Jain
24 Sep 2015
Nepal crisis has less parallel with Sri Lanka and more with pre - 1971 Pakistan (ii)- If mishandled by world-community the Nepal crisis is bound to lead to confrontation between 2 (India & China) or may be even 3 nuclear countries (also Pakistan) (iii)- World-community should also think about the futility of Iran Nuclear deal
Violence in Terai region of Nepal in the wake of adoption of a new Constitution by Nepal (which has left~ 50 Nepalis killed including security forces) is being played down by India & Nepal out of guilt feeling for the simple reason that both have brought it on the verge where it may lead to confrontation between 2 (India & China) or may be even 3 nuclear countries (also Pakistan).
Prominent Indian media & even government of India (GOI) have tried to divert the attention of world-community by saying that the situation in Nepal is like what was in Sri Lanka (where political rights denied to Tamilians led to bloodshed and atrocities from which Sri Lanka has not recovered fully even till date) and situation in Nepal can be easily tackled as was done by India by amending the constitution many times in order to accommodate the political aspirations of various groups (through reorganization of States on linguistic basis, splitting States on development basis, reservation to scheduled castes & scheduled tribes and even to backward groups / castes by implementing Mandal commission report, new demarcation of constituencies etc).
But world-community should not be fooled by this approach of India which is nothing but ostrich approach (denying the reality) & whistling in the dark (to ward-off the fear). Instead world-community should understand that Nepal crisis has less parallel with Sri Lanka and more with pre - 1971 Pakistan which has the potential of culminating, as explained below, into confrontation between 2 (India & China) or may be even 3 nuclear countries (also Pakistan):-
(1)- Although the population of the two zones the West Pakistan and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) was close to equal, political power was concentrated in West Pakistan and it was widely perceived that East Pakistan was being exploited & discriminated against, leading to many grievances. Similar is the situation between Terai region on one side and Hill & Mountain region (H&M region) of Nepal on other side where both regions are close to equal (Terai little more) in population.
(2)- In both East & West Pakistan population was Muslims similarly in Nepal population is Hindus in Terai & H&M region. But West Pakistan had political domination hence did not want to give political power to East Pakistan (though in election of March 1971 East Pakistan party Awami League led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman got the majority) and were forced to split the country due to Indian intervention on the side of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)
(3)- Similarly politically dominant people of H&M region (also considering themselves to be the legitimate title holder of Nepal being originally native people than people of Terai who mainly came from India) will never allow Terai people to rule Nepal (though it is only a matter of time that Terai people will ultimate get majority in elections because their sense of grievance has now been aroused after new constitution which is bound be amended under Indian pressure in order to remove the lack of representation of Terai people).
(4)- This will have five very dangerous & serious global implications :-
(i)- People from H&M region of Nepal (Gorkhas) are huge in numbers in India over 15 million (who may face violence & discrimination by Indian Hindus). This will evoke global outcry by human-rights-groups also in countries like UK (Britain) where Gorkhas have been in its army.
(ii)- The first casualty of turmoil in Nepal & and its fallout in India will be open border between India & Nepal. Due to law & order situation (also from Jihadis who some time operate from Nepal as happened in 26/ 11 too) India will be constrained to convert open border with Nepal into common international border with military of India & Nepal on respective sides. This will have tremendous strategic implication for entire region.
(iii)- Hindu majority India will not play similar role in Hindu Nepal as it played in Bangladesh in breaking Muslim Pakistan. Especially after this year's massive earthquake in Nepal financially strong China (through humanitarian aid and huge investment proposals) has already brought Nepal in its fold. Hence China (which is backing the people of H&M region by supporting new Nepali Constitution) will continue to support them to hilt especially against India & Indian interests and will ensure that Nepal is not partitioned.
But anybody who knows anything about India knows that Nepal bordering Indian States (especially Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh & Bihar mainly from where Terai people went in Nepal) are not the State of Tamil Nadu from where Dravidian Tamilians went in Sri Lanka. On the contrary Hindi speaking Uttarakhand, U.P & Bihar are politically crucial States for any Union GOI and willy-nilly GOI will have to take tough stand against Nepal especially against its people from H&M region who are bound to deny political rights to people from Terai (mainly of Indian origin). This is where the danger of confrontation lies between two nuclear countries India and China.
(iv)- In view of said Sino - India confrontation, India is bound to change its Tibet policy and will openly support the Independence of Tibet from China (by using pro - China Dalai Lama or some other anti- China Leader who are already residing in India) and India may even agitate Taiwan issue. This all will have immense global implications.
(v)- Though normally governments avoid fishing in troubled waters but theocratic Pakistan is different. In addition to the itching Pakistan will feel about taking revenge against India for its role in breaking Pakistan, it will have one more compelling reason to side against India. As per media reports Islam has lost the lives of ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis for Kashmir hence Pakistan will be compelled by Islam to snatch at-least Muslim Kashmir (if not non-Muslim Jammu & Ladhakh region of J&K) from India by taking advantage of said Sino - India confrontation in Nepal. (Here it is noteworthy that Pakistan is already in the process of practically becoming another province of China after Sino-Pak economic corridor and related huge investment by China in Pakistan). This is where the danger of confrontation lies between three nuclear countries Pakistan & China one side and India on other.
Therefor world-community (A)- should not fall prey to the diversionary noises made by India and Nepal that all-is-well (though it may be so for some time but not for long) and instead should be extremely vigilant about what happens in Nepal and what India, China and Pakistan do in view of inevitable political huge turmoil in Nepal (B)- Should also think about the futility of Iran Nuclear deal which emanates from skewed nuclear policy of P 5+1 who (instead of going for time bound denuclearization of all) unethically allow countries like India, Pakistan, China etc to have Nukes (The WMDS) as some divine right, but absurdly mind these WMDs with Iran.