Provocation at Quetta through Balochistan enough for military takeover if PDM remains non-serious. By Hem Raj Jain
27 Oct 2020
On October 25 at Quetta Jalsa (public meeting) the ‘Pakistan Democratic Movement’ (PDM) leaders said [about independence of Balochistan, removing fencing at Durand line (border between Pakistan & Afghanistan) to facilitate people to cross border without passport-visa and incitement to Security forces (military & police) to not follow orders of their superiors ‘if are against Constitution / law’] which have provided enough provocation for Pak military and if the PDM continues to remain non-serious then the military rule / martial law in Pakistan is highly likely as explained below:-
(1)- The ‘Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan’ (JUP) leader Maulana Owais Noorani said at the Jalsa “We want Balochistan as an independent state,” as reported at https://arynews.tv/en/jup-owais-noorani-indian-narrative-pdm-rally/ . Though denial by Noorani of such intent appeared in media but it will not placate Pak military because (i)- Noorani has religious background hence can influence activities in Balochistan through network of Masjids, Madrassa etc without living over there physically (ii)- India is accused of inciting rebellion in Balochistan by allegedly sending persons like Kulbhushan Yadav and mentioning Balochistan in PM Modi’s 2016 speech from Red fort on independence day (iii)- Unlike the ‘Instrument of Accession’ (IoA) of J&K to India which was signed by its ruler willingly and after Pakistan invaded it militarily the IoA of Balochistan to Pakistan was procured under military pressure and against the will of the resolution passed by the representatives of the people. Hence many Balochs are already agitating for independence of Balochistan
(2)- At this Quetta Jalsa the ‘Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party’ leader Mahmood Khan Achakzai said that the Pashtoons on both side of the border (Durand line) do not accept the fencing at the border and will pull it down and will continue to cross the border without passport & visa as reported at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhDbkW7iL_k . This means Achakzai in other words is demanding Pashtunistan (comprising Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan) and Pak military will simply not tolerate / allow it.
(3)- In addition to accusing Pak Army Chief General Bajwa & ISI Chief General Faiz for criminal interference in 2018 elections etc thus illegally benefiting PM Imran (as Former Prime Minister Nawaz accused at Gujranwala Jalsa on October 16), Nawaz at Quetta Jalsa also accused so (as reported at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrZVE7v1YYo ). At Queta Nawaz also gave three messages (i)- To officers and Jawans of the military to respect the oath they have taken to keep allegiance to the constitution / law and not to obey unconstitutional / illegal orders of the government (ii)- Similar message to civil administration including Police in Pakistan (iii)- To people of Pakistan to agitate against authoritarian, unconstitutional and illegal activities and behavior of the government and their various agencies and departments.
(4)- Nawaz at this Quetta also saluted the police officers of Sindh who as a protest applied for mass leave in protest of alleged abduction of Inspector General of police by Army (Rangers) / ISI at Karachi. But Nawaz should know that the inquiry ordered by the Sindh government, Army Chief and Pak Senate are all wrong and these may give conflicting results. Rather the family members or security staff of IG could have filed a complaint for getting FIR registered in local police station (having territorial jurisdiction of area of the residence of IG) about alleged abduction of IG and the investigation officer of the police station could do all the investigation required for filing charge sheet in court for prosecuting the accused (including officers & personnel of Army / Rangers, as alleged) of said abduction. Even now the PDM can move Sindh High Court for getting this FIR registered if it wants justice in this matter instead of praising the rebellious attitude of the officers of Sindh police who in mass applied for leave.
(5)- Nawaz should have kept in mind what happened in India in 1975 when PM Indira Gandhi imposed emergency mainly because Jayprakash Narayan (JP) incited security forces (military & police) to not obey ‘wrong / unethical’ orders of the government (Cancellation of the election of Indira Gandhi by U.P. High Court was not the reason for the 1975 emergency because she had remedy by way of appeal to the Supreme Court). JP had huge mass following hence such incitement to security forces could have triggered anarchy in India at that time in 1975. This is the reason Congress party and the supporters of emergency (including some political parties) while not defending excesses of emergency (inflicted by government and extra-constitutional authority too) still defends 1975 emergency in the interest of avoiding anarchy incited by JP. Therefore Pak military will consider itself within its legitimate right to impose martial law / military rule in Pak in the face of incitement to security forces of Pakistan (to not obey the ‘wrong’ orders of the government) from the platform of the PDM (which has 11 political parties as members who got about 70 % votes in 2018 election that too in allegedly rigged elections).
(6)- As far as Nawaz’s third message to the people (though it seems to be their legitimate & constitutional right) but in reality it is not so in view of the fact that Nawaz & the PDM are not doing the two requisites for solving the problems for which the PDM came into existence. The first is about illegitimate elections. As accused by the leaders of the PDM during speeches at all three Jalsas (at Gujranwala, Karachi and Quetta) the Imran government was brought to power illegally by Pak military by denying political rights to the people of Pakistan not only through rigging of elections but also by pressurizing Supreme Court for removing PM Nawaz Sharif from office and by denying him the right to contest election & to hold any office in the party. This judicial coup was also discussed in national and international media [ https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-a-judicial-coup-against-pakistani-pm-sharif/a-39871933 and https://www.geo.tv/latest/156544-musharrafs-former-minister-says-nawaz-sharifs-disqualification-weak-lacks-judicial-grounds and https://www.dawn.com/news/1357595 and https://www.geo.tv/latest/151531-legal-heavyweights-weigh-in-on-scs-decision-on-panama-case and https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/07/30/why-sharifs-ouster-is-dangerous-for-pakistan/ ]
(7)- Therefore while carrying out its Jalsas, rallies, Dharnas (sit-ins) etc the PDM should have asked Nawaz to file a writ petition in Supreme Court for reviewing its orders for disqualifying Nawaz from PM office and from contesting elections and from holding of office his party PML-N [while Nawaz can be tried in PROPER court / legal proceedings for (if any) crime of corruption, assets beyond declared source of income, money laundering etc].
(8)- The second requisite which the PDM has not done is about the Kashmir problem. The PDM should have taken a million march (in which the PDM chief Maulana is expert as claimed by him that his party JUI-F has carried out 15 million marches against illegitimate 2108 elections which were allegedly rigged). This million march of the people (comprising mainly but not exclusively of the people of Pakistani side of J&K including Gilgit-Baltistan) should be by crossing LoC (in a peaceful march for filling the prisons) towards Srinagar by demanding plebiscite in united J&K which is not only as per UN-Resolution but also as mandated by the IoA of J&K to India which reads as –
“[ it is my Government’s wish that, as soon as law and order have been restored in Kashmir, and her soil cleared of the invader, the question of the State’s Accession should be settled by a reference to the people: Yours Sincerely Sd/- Mountbatten of Burma]”
(9)- The imposition of martial law / military rule in Pakistan is getting support from two more factors. First, the temporary factor. In the USA due to Presidential elections the US-administration is not giving any attention towards what is happening in the Indo-Pak region where Western democracy is facing grave threat [which is evident from the fact that neither in two presidential debates nor in vice-presidential debate the serious developments of Indo-China-Pak region (all three having nukes) were discussed / debated]. Second, the permanent factor. China will support martial law / military rule (notwithstanding its public posture) in the interest of defending / propagating Chinese democracy in Pakistan as mentioned at https://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/opinion-details/3673
It is hoped that after November 3 when the Presidential elections are over, the USA will take seriously the disturbing & explosive developments in Pakistan which are posing unprecedented threat to the Western democracy in Indian subcontinent.