USA should seek explanation from Afghanistan about alleged Indian terrorism against Pakistan from Afghan soil for sabotaging CPEC. By Hem Raj Jain

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This refers to the press briefing by Pak Foreign Minister Qureshi and DG ISPR Gen. Iftikhar as reported at https://www.dawn.com/news/1590333/irrefutable-evidence-dossier-on-indias-sponsorship-of-state-terrorism-in-pakistan-presented  and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwLMTZ4LWiU ) where Pakistan on Saturday unveiled a dossier containing ‘irrefutable evidence’ of India’s alleged  sponsorship of terrorism in the country mainly from the soil of Afghanistan primarily to sabotage CPEC.

The USA is still in Afghanistan and the US-supported government is in power in Afghanistan. India is a strategic ally of the USA and Pakistan is also a US-friend which is helping the USA in coming out of Afghanistan. Hence it is the moral responsibility of the USA to clear the air about these extremely serious allegations against India in which Pakistan has also provided ‘evidences’ of  telephonic conversations with terrorists by Indian agents and of money transfer to terrorists on behalf of government of India (GoI) .

Pakistan might have done it (and it is entitled to do so) for the purpose of bringing India under the scrutiny of the ‘Financial Action Task Force’ (FATF) which looks into the matter of State sponsored / condoned terrorism and also the scrutiny of the UN (where India is trying to get permanent veto wielding membership). But there are reasons for the USA to take this matter seriously, as given below: -

(1)- The USA considers Pak government under excessive influence of China and considers CPEC / Gwadar port projects in violation of international norms & practices (as mentioned at https://www.state.gov/a-conversation-with-ambassador-alice-wells-on-the-china-pakistan-economic-corridor/ ) . The US-strategic ally India angered China by saying that it will militarily retrieve Aksai Chin too along with PoK & Gilgit-Baltistan of united-J&K when the Ministers of GoI said so after August 5, 2019 after abolishing special status of J&K and converting it into two Union Territories which also angered China hence China went to UN more than once against this act of India. In addition to it, India joined anti-China QUAD hence China made intrusion in Eastern Ladakh (to secure CPEC) where China is refusing to restore status-quo-ante of April 2020.

(2)- To be fair to China it has every right to construct ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) and CPEC etc for the purpose of building infrastructure for transporting its raw material and finished products as the West also did when it progressed economically. Even India should have welcomed it rather it should have offered Kandla port to China to give it access to Arabian Sea which reduces transport cost tremendously (as will be achieved through Gwadar port). Only thing which can be ensured is that China should not use OBOR / CPEC etc for military and strategic purposes.

(3)- This dossier by Pakistan accusing India of indulging in terrorist activities for sabotaging CPEC (including Gwadar port) will immensely infuriate China against India and if the USA doesn’t do anything about it then China will be left with no alternative than to prepare Pakistan to snatch remaining J&K from India (in which China will also be interested in Ladakh) in the interest of protecting CPEC once and for all.

(4)- Pakistan has given a copy of this dossier to ‘Organization of Islamic Cooperation’ (OIC) too, which is for the purpose of garnering support of Islamic countries in case Pakistan takes military action against India on the issues of Kashmir. Such explosive situation is quite possible due to present volatile political scenario in Pakistan as explained below: -

(i)- Saudi Arabia got angry when Qureshi in mid-August criticized it for not highlighting Kashmir issue in OIC and threatened to raise this issue in OIC without Saudi support and with the support of new Muslim block supported by China. In Pakistan it has not been considered a mere coincidence that, after JUI-F Chief Maulana and PML-N Chief Nawaz criticized Qureshi for this, the PDM was launched on September 20 to remove PM Imran from Power and to bring Pak military under discipline of Pak Constitution. Rather many in Pakistan (commentators in media) believe that the PDM is supported by Saudis even by financial & other  resources (due to new Muslim Block factor) and backed by the USA (due to China factor)

(ii)- If what many Pakistanis believe is true then Saudis depended on wrong people (the PDM) without realizing that in Asia the people (on their own) are not capable of running Western democracy hence it will be impossible for the PDM to create a situation where Pakistan will be run as per democratic Constitution by discipling Pak military. With the result earlier it was Bilawal Bhutto of PPP who approached Army Chief to initiate inquiry into the case of abduction of IG police by Pak Rangers / ISI though Bilawal could have easily got the proper investigation done by getting FIR filed for this abduction by Police of his Party's government in Sindh but Bilawal preferred intervention of Army in civilian matters in violation of agenda of PDM. Now Maryam Nawaz (through an interview to BBC) has expressed willingness to talk to Pak military if Imran government is removed hence now PML-N also wants interference of Army in Pak politics  in violation of the agenda of PDM. 

(iii)- After the formation of PDM, Maulana issued a statement that if Pak military does not mend its ways then its fate will be as humiliating as that of the USA-NATO Military in Afghanistan at the hands of militant-Jihadis. Hence the entire world would watch what Maulana will do now, when two major parties of PDM (namely PML-N & PPP) have already run away from the battlefield leaving Maulana and his Jihadis practically alone. In case Maulana and some constituents of PDM take up violent agitation for dislodging Imran government, Pak military will immediately impose martial law / military rule which will gain legitimacy in the eyes of Pakistanis in view of anti-India sentiments which will be whipped up increasingly especially after said Saturday dossier.

(5)- India will also be of no help to the USA in this matter because India remains as irresponsible as ever. . India can easily solve the problem of communalism in Indian subcontinent and Kashmir problem (i)- Through dual citizenship for about 160 million people who were forced out from Pakistan, Bangladesh and India by violence during partition [about 80 million Hindus (about 20% of present population of  Pak & Bangladesh) and similarly Muslims from India to these countries] and (ii) Through plebiscite in united J&K as mandated by ‘Instrument of Accession’ of J&K to India. - But India will not do these due to communal hatred Hindu majority India has towards Muslim Pakistan. The present escalation in cross border firing at LoC, which has resulted in many deaths, injuries and destruction of properties  ( as reported at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-gsY7q51pM and https://www.dawn.com/news/1590196/6-including-soldier-martyred-in-ajk-10-killed-on-indian-side-in-major-escalation-along-loc ) may be due to increased terrorist infiltration in the valley as alleged by India, for creating disturbances in local elections but this will also act as a fuel to the fire of explosive political situation in Pakistan. 

(6)-  India and the USA should realize that, as mentioned above, Pakistan is passing through worst political crises where it is highly likely to come under military rule / martial law which will not be as shaky as military regimes were earlier (because of the pressure of the West on them to restore democracy) because this time it will be under the protection of China which has no romantic notion about having or propagating Western democracy in Pakistan. Moreover, by branding alleged terrorism by India, CPEC centric, Pakistan has put the burden of eliminating this alleged terrorism on China

Therefore, in order to avoid a nuclear flare up between three nuclear countries namely Pakistan, India and China it is hoped that the USA will seek explanation from Afghanistan about alleged Indian terrorism against Pakistan from Afghan soil for sabotaging CPEC and then will do the needful as situation unfolds & warrants.

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