Former PM Imran Khan has been removed from office by vote of no-confidence on April, 10 by National Assembly (NA) of Pakistan but Imran has succeeded in the last one month to divert the political narrative in Pakistan. Earlier the opposition (under umbrella organization PDM) quite succeeded in developing a narrative that - “the Imran government is incapable of managing the economy of Pakistan hence Pakistanis are suffering hence Imran government needs to be removed from office”.
But now Imran has succeed in developing a narrative (believed by substantial part of Pak population) that - “the USA engineered no-confidence motion (as is evident from a memo by US embassy of Pakistan to its foreign office) due to which political / constitutional crisis happened in Pakistan when on April 3 Dy Speaker of NA quashed this no-confidence motion which was restored by the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) on April 9 due to which this no-confidence proceedings took place. In this memo it was alleged that the USA threatened Pakistan that if Imran (who was in Moscow when Russia invaded Ukraine) is not removed from office (through no-confidence motion) then Pakistan will have to face the consequences”. Imran even said publicly (as reported in Pak media) that the USA spent money for purchasing the MNAs for bringing this no-confidence motion (for investigating these charges the Imran government even instituted a commission) . Even the Speaker of NA resigned on April 9 by saying that in view of this memo he could not preside over the proceedings of no-confidence motion because it would be against the independence & vital interests of the State of Pakistan.
But it is not an ordinary loss of office by some PM through no-confidence motion. Rather it has serious implications all over the world in the present global scenario about which the USA will have to be vigilant as mentioned below:-
(1)- The reputation of the USA about engineering regime changes in different countries is very poor hence substantial part of the Pakistanis will not only believe that the USA is responsible for getting Imran govt removed because he was pursuing independent foreign policy but it will create a tremendous sympathy for Imran because he was defeated in no-confidence motion by merely two votes more than majority which every body would believe that this was not possible if the money & coercive influence of USA were not behind this no-confidence motion.
(2)- Imran rightly or wrongly [due to rosary (‘tasbeeh’) in his hand all the time, his championing the issue of Islamophobia at international forums including at UN, talk of Riyasat-e-Madina from different forums, concerns for suffering of Muslims of Afghanistan & Pakistan (due to drone attacks too) due to alleged submission of earlier Pak authorities to USA post 9/11, showing concerns for the sufferings of Kashmiris and Palestinians due to unresolved chronic problems etc] has been able to establish an image among a large part of the Muslim population (especially Jihadis) that he is the only political leader which can solve the problems of the Muslim world. Moreover after the famous statement of Imran - “Absolutely Not” - regarding providing air bases to the USA in Pakistan against Talibans of Afghanistan, Imran has won the confidence of the militant-Jihadis too.
(3)- The USA could have easily managed all these things in Pakistan had there not been Ukraine war. Russia has demolished the reputation & clout of the USA (as a powerful leader of the free world) because the USA could not protect the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and human rights of Ukraine despite ‘Budapest Memorandum’. China which is already supporting Russia on Ukraine war had been (along with Russia) supporting Imran government against the USA during this no-confidence controversy in Pakistan.
(4)- Imran as PM said many times publicly that “he admires the Chinese political model because it has succeeded in taking hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in China”. In other words, Imran believes that he couldn’t fare satisfactorily about economic matters in a democratic Pakistan but he would do wonders for the economic progress of Pakistan in ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’.
(5)- Keeping these economical possibilities in mind (which are sine-qua-non for welfare State of Riyasat-e-Madina) Imran has to merely do following two things in order to come in power in Pakistan again, without democratic process of voting:-
(A)- Imran has to keep anti-US sentiment alive in Pakistan which is very easy because (i)- Despite whatever the SCP has done against Imran government & his party’s Dy Speaker these people in Pakistan would believe Imran and wouldn’t believe the SCP due to lack of credibility of SCP (which was demolished even by major opposition party PML-N and by national & international media which accused SCP of dislodging Nawaz Sharif from Prime Minister office in 2017 in ‘judicial coup’ (ii)- Nowadays (especially after 9/11 when the USA went militarily in Afghanistan & Iraq) Muslims are prepared to believe anything (right or wrong) against the USA (iii)- The official public support of China and Russia for Imran against the USA in this controversy, are also not helping the Biden-administration.
(B)- Imran has to merely raise the issue of Kashmir (which will keep even Pakistan military subdued and at its ‘proper’ place) rather the demand of taking J&K Militarily from India and then it will be difficult to find people in Pakistan who would not come on the side of Imran on Kashmir issue.
(6)- In this Kashmir campaign two factors would go in favor of Imran:-
(i)- Now Russia may not protect Indian interests. If the Ukraine war prolongs, Russia will demand that India by giving-up its ‘neutrality’ should come on its side openly. Failing, Russia will not mind giving permission to Pakistan to snatch Kashmir militarily from India (if India doesn’t solve the Kashmir problem by plebiscite and if India doesn’t come to the Russian camp) . Otherwise also Russia has always helped India on military matters against Pakistan (whether by using Veto about Kashmir in the UN or during Bangladesh war where Russia helped India even against US-military threat) but India didn’t come to the rescue of Russia in Afghanistan (when in late eighties Pakistan was helping the USA ,militarily through Mujahideens) though India at that time could have easily helped Russia militarily by taking PoJK militarily from Pakistan (which India is under legal obligation to take as per the IoA of J&K to India). In other words India is under obligation of Russia about military matters and not vice-versa
(ii)- As far as China, it knows that once the dirt of the Ukraine war settles down the West led by the USA would do everything to reduce the power of China (not necessarily through Taiwan or other contentious issues on the Pacific / China sea). Even on the economic front China needs the West led by the USA more than vice-versa hence it will be much less painful for the West to decouple economically from China than vice-versa. Therefore before this happens, China (with the cooperation of Russia) would like to promote a global order taking the Hindu & Muslim worlds on their side.
(7)- China, Russia and Imran wants to finish democracy in Pakistan which is evident from the fact that the April 7 judgment of the SCP in reality was in favors of Imran because it didn't say that - "[Foreign conspiracy (which resulted in Demarche against the USA after NSC meeting) involving opposition MNAs to move no-confidence motion are such offenses which don't have potential to disqualify such MNAs. Hence the Speaker was not entitled to quash the no-confidence resolution]". The Imran government on April 9 could have told the NA Speaker that - “[offenses by opposition (under Articles 5 & 6) have potential of disqualifying opposition MNAs, hence till the final outcome of detailed investigation into these offenses, the resolution be quashed which the Speaker could again do and then Imran could again advise the President to dissolve NA which the President could again do and then could again order elections].
(8)- This time SCP wouldn’t have intervene due to three reasons (i)- Actions under Article 6 can’t be reviewed by SCP (ii)- SCP wouldn’t have liked to be seen as giving advantage to opposition MNAs of their (alleged) wrongs about Article 5 & 6 and (iii)- If still SCP interfered in the proceedings of Article 6 then for the misconduct the concerned Judges of SCP could be got impeached through a reference by President to ‘Supreme Judicial Council’. In other words the key for the victory of Imran lied with Article 6 which could easily be invoked in the given context because Imran accused the USA of giving money (for purchasing the MNAs for this no-confidence motion) which could easily be proved (if true) in detailed investigation. But China & Russia also didn’t ask Imran to get Article 6 invoked (in this way) rather allowed the opposition to succeed.
(9)- In this Jihadi mission of Imran the things would be more difficult and serious for the West led by the USA if Shia-leader Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran also joins this mission for solving the problems of Palestinians. Iran has motivation to do it because it would finish the leadership of Saudi Arabia in Sunni- Muslim world (especially in OIC) .
In view of the above mentioned, the Biden-administration should be vigilant about the future political (and even religious including Jihadi related) activities (especially with Russian & Chinese support) of former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, if the USA doesn’t want further dent in its reputation & credibility as the leader of the free world & ‘liberal Western democracy’.