China shouldn’t indulge in adventurism over Taiwan (ii)- In Ukraine war it was not military power of the USA which was WEAK but will to fight due to Christian-European factor (iii)- The USA (and its NATO & other allies) wouldn’t mind militarily entering Taiwan war (including nuclear) where mostly the lives & blood of the third class people, the non-Christian Asians would be lost
Russia on Friday has assimilated 4 more regions of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) in Russia after last week’s referendum in these regions as reported at https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-annex-ukraines-donetsk-luhansk-kherson-zaporizhzhia-rcna50133 . This may embolden China (as have been discussed widely in international forums & media) to militarily assimilate Taiwan with mainland of China but it will be suicidal & catastrophic as mentioned below:-
(1)- First & foremost people should know that it is not the first half of the 20th century when European countries fought with each other in World War I & II for dominance in order to exploit the natural resources of the rest of the world (including in their colonies). Now the West led by the USA has developed and established a world order through the UN and through various global economic & financial institutions (also by establishing their political system in many countries) through which the West led by the USA is exploiting the natural resources of the rest of the world without taking the headache & burden of running their colonies. Therefore the West led by the USA now wouldn’t fight major wars (like world war including nuclear) among themselves and will confine to comparatively minor wars as happened in Ukraine too.
(2)- It is evident from the case of Ukraine where all the tenets of international law were violated but the West led by the USA (which is mainly responsible for starting the Ukraine problem since 2013) didn’t militarily stop Russia from annexing part of Ukraine territory. In 2013 when demonstrations were engineered by the West (NATO countries) in Ukraine even the US Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (on a TV program) objected and said - “when there is democracy in Ukraine and if majority of its people want change in economic policies then they should elect another government in next elections and the West shouldn’t try to destabilize elected government”. But the West didn’t listen and even a military coup was carried out which resulted in annexation of Crimea (after referendum) by Russia in 2014.
(3)- When Russia annexed Crimea the USA thought it would be able to persuade Russia to give it back to Ukraine [whose nukes were snatched by the USA (which has emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine) and whose territorial integrity’s protection is the responsibility of the USA under ‘Budapest Memorandum 1994]. On the contrary after eight years after recognizing the independence of Donbas (Donetsk & Luhansk) on February 21 and after entering Ukraine militarily on February 24 (killing many innocent Ukrainians) now Russia has assimilating Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine through referendum under coercion of Russian military. During the last 8 years the incumbents of White House and Congressmen (both Democrats and Republicans) didn’t try to take Crimea for Ukraine from Russia (including militarily). Moreover the West didn’t stop Ukraine (after the coup & Crimea annexation in 2014) when it over-reacted by force against Russian speaking people specially in Donbass region which helped the uprising.
(4)- Here one thing should be clear to the world community. Territory is a martial subject and no amount of desire of the civilians (through referendum etc) can decide it rather only the dominant military power decides it. India (unlike the 13 colonies of the USA) didn't raise guns for independence against Britishers hence didn't have military power hence Britain could trifurcate it in 1947 under pressure of (ally & military super power) USA which wanted West Pakistan as member of SEATO & CENTO to counter USSR through Afghanistan. In 1861 the South of the USA couldn't get independence despite giving immense lives and blood for it because it didn't have adequate military power and no other country came to support its independence. By the same token people may think that Russia is the dominant military power therefore it could annex four more regions of Ukraine on September 30 but the people especially China shouldn’t be carried away by such misleading inferences which is only half truth.
(5)- Here two things are important to note:-
(i)- As the old wisdom goes - ‘One shouldn't go by what politicians say but what they do’. The US President Biden and Ukraine President Zelenskyy (right from February 24 invasion of Ukraine by Russia) have been telling the world that Russia is losing in the Ukraine war due to immense military (including financial) assistance to Ukraine (mainly by the USA) and people have to merely wait and see Russia defeated. But on the contrary Russia which entered on February 24 militarily to help Donbass (independent Donetsk & Luhansk) now has not only assimilated 4 more regions of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) in Russia after last week’s referendum but it has given huge military advantage to Russia because now the mainland of Russia is connected by land with Crimea. Therefore instead of going by public postures of politicians the people should try to understand the global vested interests (including global capital) which are presently dominating the global politics.
(ii)- As the old wisdom goes - ‘It is not the gun but the man behind the gun which matters’. Now this wisdom has been modified in the Ukraine war. ‘It is not the military capability of a country but what matters in war is which country is prepared to give lives & blood in war’. The West led by the USA knew that Russia (and its transformation USSR) which gave maximum lives & blood for itself and for its allies during World War I & II wouldn’t mind again giving immense lives and blood for itself and taking immense lives and blood of others for its ‘motherland’ (carved out of Ukraine through referendum). Hence the West took the nuclear threat by Russia seriously and allowed Russia to annex Ukraine territory of four more regions through referendum.
(6)- Now the curtain has dropped on Ukraine war and on the fate of Ukraine where Russia will defend its newly acquired 5 territories namely of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and the West (including the USA) which is not prepared to give lives and blood for protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine wouldn’t be able to do anything. Hence now the important question is about its fall-out for Taiwan.
(7)- As far as the USA and its allies in Taiwan’s neighborhood like Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea etc (India is naturally not in the counting despite QUAD) are concerned they will also not give lives & blood for Taiwan (as European allies of the USA in Ukraine didn’t give). But without going into details it is enough to say if China tries to take-over Taiwan militarily through nuclear blackmail (as Russia did in Ukraine) then on the surface it seems nobody can stop it but in fact it is not so. Here four factors will be important.
(i)- Whether China (like Russia in Ukraine) will be prepared to give immense lives and blood (including by similar nuclear blackmail) for Taiwan ? China has not done so recently (after Communist regime in 1949) in wars though it has killed many Chinese in cultural revolution etc. Hence Chinese preparedness to give huge lives & blood for Taiwan in war with other countries, is yet to be seen.
(ii)- If Russia joins China militarily in the take-over of Taiwan by China then the military scenario changes completely and fundamentally. But Russia has not shown any willingness to launch an alternate global order though it has seriously damaged the present global order of the US-sponsored UN through the Ukraine war.
(iii)- Russia may not like China to militarily take-over Taiwan because after Ukraine if the USA loses its face & reputation over Taiwan too then it will be the end of the global leadership of the USA. Not only Russia but China also may not like this because after all both Russia and China economically have benefited immensely during the last 30 years from the US led global order and its economic & financial institutions (including the UN where both Russia and China have veto power). Hence both Russia and China would need the USA to do the dirty work of running the global order while Russia and China further get huge benefits out of such a US led global order. But despite this, if China thinks of trying adventurism in Taiwan, it should know the following.
(iv)- In Ukraine the USA & its allies didn’t intervene militarily (in nuclear war) because Christians and Europeans were involved. The West has classified the world in four categories of ethnicity. The first at the top is the class of people from Western Europe (and in countries like the USA etc with people from Western European countries in dominance), second class are people from Eastern Europe, third class are people from Asia and fourth class are people from black Africa. Of-course religion is an added factor. Hence the USA (and its NATO & other allies) may not mind entering Taiwan war (including nuclear) militarily where mostly the lives & blood of the third class people, the non-Christian Asians would be lost.
In other words, presently the fate of Asia is in the hands (and wisdom) of China. Asia especially China shouldn’t forget, the USA nuked a non-Christian Asian country Japan (at Hiroshima & Nagasaki) in 1945 when Japan (after 1941 Pearl Harbor) by that time in 1945 was in no position to militarily threaten the US-mainland. Therefore China shouldn’t draw wrong lessons from Russian annexation of part of Ukraine because the concession about nuclear war (over Ukraine issue) which the West led by the USA gave to Christian Europe will not be available for non-Christian Asians (on Taiwan issue).