It is best left to historians to enlighten us how much the abandoning of Afghanistan by India (after PM Modi came to power in 2014 as revealed by former Director General Delhi Group Radha Kumar in an interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDEmjy9BSII ) was responsible for the decision of the USA to leave Afghanistan the way it is doing. But the two drone attacks at IAF premises on Sunday has made it clear that for creating unmanageable problems in India, now militant Jihadis need not be dependent on the State of Pakistan (and its security apparatus).
Instead the Kashmir centric terrorist groups in Pakistan will get a committed ally in the form of Taliban in Afghanistan for carrying out such more drone attacks (and other attacks) in India (even through aggrieved Muslims in Kashmir and in other parts of India who are there, also after Modi’s regime in Delhi). That does not mean that all is lost for India rather India can still come out victorious from the present gloomy situations if PROACTIVELY takes the help of the USA for establishing secular democracy in Afghanistan or even for ‘secular, democratic, federal, socialist, Hindi-Rashtra’ in Greater-India if needed, as given below in view of the following:-
(1)- India should realize that after this well highlighted (even in mainstream media https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/left-right-centre/jammu-airport-blasts-first-ever-drone-attack-on-indian-military-base-591639#livevideo-top-shows ) drone attack at Jammu, the situation has further changed in Kashmir (and in India too). If the Government of India (GoI) thinks that by getting Kashmiri leaders (who are now branded as ‘mere power seekers’ by Kashmiris) to participate in Vidhansabha elections (in their meeting with PM Modi on June 24) the people in J&K (especially in Kashmir valley) will also be pacified then it is living in a make believe world.
(2)- Radha equates abandoning of Tibet by PM Nehru in the fifties with this abandoning of Afghanistan by PM Modi which is bound to bring China to fill this vacuum in Afghanistan with the assistance of Pakistan & Russia especially after the USA leaves Afghanistan. India after wasting $ 2-3 Billion can’t remain in Afghanistan even as a donor of aid because China will take care of financial / economic needs of Afghanistan.
(3)- India should know that there are many harassed and aggrieved groups in Greater-India and only the ‘secular, democratic, federal, socialist, Hindi-Rashtra’ can address the grievances of Pashtuns, Balochs, Sindhis, Kashmiris, Rohingyas, millions of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants in India, Myanmarese under military rule etc. If only Western part of said Greater-India is considered then out of about 480 million Muslims only about 25 % the 120 million Muslims are in land-locked Pakistani Punjab whereas about 75 % the 360 million Muslims live [in India including united-J&K (where Indian Muslims will support it because it will increase the percentage of Muslims in Greater-India), Afghanistan (which will get access to Arabian-Sea and consolidation of Pashtuns of KPK etc in Greater-India) and rest of Pakistan] hence the overwhelming majority of these 360 million Muslims will welcome Greater-India.
(4)- With Afghanistan, India historically didn’t have a one way relation. During Mahabharat, queen Gandhari was from Afghanistan, Buddhism spread in Afghanistan largely after 4th century B.C. as is evident from Bamiyan Buddha idols which were demolished by Taliban in 2001, since 10th century A.D., many invaders and rulers came from Afghanistan to India. Hence Afghanistan & Pakistan will have no problem in joining this Greater-India (which has huge potential of economic progress also, not only once GoI recovers Rs 1,000 Trillion Income Tax from about one million fake farmers but also by providing largest market of one language speaking people, as mentioned at https://chauthiduniya.com/military-veterans-should-think-seriously-before-expecting-their-children-to-unnecessarily-offer-blood-lives-for-irresponsible-corrupt-civilians/ or
(5)- Some problems will come from the landlocked Punjab of Pakistan (which dominates Pakistan, militarily too) but India can easily manage it peacefully with the help of the USA through the UN because India was a member of the UN since 1945 and all these happened after 1945. But Hindu majority India will have to keep two things in mind. Unless (before Muslims) Hindus learn to live cordially with Muslims, peace can’t be expected in Greater-India and without further losing lives, blood and money, the USA will help India in Afghanistan in the interest of the victory in on-going cold war II of ‘liberal Western democracy’ against ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’, as given below:-
(i)- After getting the territories free from outsiders, for plebiscite not only in united - JK but also in Balochistan (who’s IoA was taken by Pakistan under military pressure despite contrary resolution by Parliament / Jirga of Balochistan)
(ii)- For providing ‘dual-citizenship’ for about 80 million (about 20 % of present population of Pakistan and Bangladesh) forcibly displaced and descendants of such forcibly displaced Hindus / Sikhs because there was no provision of population transfer in ‘Indian Independence Act 1947’. And to further ensure (under military pressure) proper law & order in present Pakistan & Bangladesh for these Hindus (Punjabis, Bengalis and Sindhis) who will go over there (after dual-citizenship) in their motherland as their citizens either for living over there or for touring or for doing business over there or for purchasing properties over there (similarly for Muslims who were forcibly displaced from India). This will puncture the balloon of the communal forces from Greater-India.
(6)- But the main problem in this matter will come from the cultural background of Hindus. Due to Hinduism the warrior class of Hindus submit to Brahmins (of Hindu order) even when it is militarily harmful. This was evident even during Maratha ascendancy in India from the 17th century after Shivaji up to 1818 when they were removed by Britishers from power. Maharashtrian Brahmins refused to coronate Shivaji hence he had to get Brahmins from Kashi (Varanasi). The Peshwas (Maharashtrian Brahmins) became de-facto rulers (which not only resulted in various splinter kingdoms of warrior class of Marathas like Scindhias in Gwalior, Gaikwad in Baroda, Holkar in Indore etc) but Hindu Kings did not come to help Marathas which resulted in crushing defeat of Marathas under Peshwa’s nephew at battle III of Panipat.
(7)- Brahmins don’t want warrior class (the Kshatriyas of Hindu order) to get limelight hence (unlike the USA) India didn’t raise guns against Britishers for independence, despite Indian Air Force having edge over Chinese Airforce India did not fight war with china properly in 1962, India never took PoK militarily from Pakistan despite its obligation under IoA, the Peace Keeping Force of India was not allowed to bring peace in Sri Lanka which ultimately resulted in genocide of Tamilians with the approval of GoI etc etc. Also India could have easily helped the USA in establishing human-rights-friendly secular democratic Afghanistan but India didn’t commit its military for bringing peace in the region (even when it is needed in the vital interests of India). It is in no coincidence that the RSS (which came in existence in 1925) which controls Hindutva forces / BJP is controlled by Maharashtrian Brahmins which was the main reason for even India's partition (because its ideology influenced Congress party also, though mildly in comparison to BJP which practices Hindutva crudely & brazenly).
(8)- Even now India should not talk to Taliban (as India is reportedly doing) and instead should help the Government of Afghanistan (under the present leadership in Afghanistan or with a new leadership) by publicly declaring (after persuading the USA to support India in every way as an ally of QUAD) that India will never tolerate a Taliban regime in Afghanistan (which India has always decried as Terrorists) and if needed then India will enter Afghanistan militarily through Indian territory of Gilgit- Baltistan (after neutralizing China through ‘UN Judicial Commission for resolving Indo-China border dispute as mentioned).
(9)- As the Chinese curse goes ‘may you live in interesting times’, we are living in interesting times hence it will be interesting to see WHETHER the BJP led by PM Modi will be able to solve the Afghan crisis by taking the US-help for bringing secular democracy in Afghanistan (or if necessary then even by making Afghanistan a member of ‘secular, democratic, federal, socialist, Hindi-Rashtra’) OR some other political party (existing or new) will be needed in India to accomplish this mission.
Because otherwise what India will face from Afghanistan post 9/11/2021 will pale into insignificance what the USA at New York got from Afghanistan on 9/11/2001.