On July 21 as per Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the Taliban has acquired much territory during the last 10 months and 212 of the 419 district centers in Afghanistan are now under Taliban control but he said none of the 34 provincial capitals have been seized by the group. Still, he said the Taliban has amassed forces on the outskirts of about half of those provincial capitals in an attempt to isolate population centers of the country, including the capital, Kabul. But he admitted that it does appear the Taliban has strategic momentum and several outcomes are possible, including some kind of negotiated settlement or a COMPLETE TALIBAN TAKEOVER as reported at
In such ground reality nothing better could be expected from July 17 - 19 Doha peace talks which failed and which made the 15 missions and the NATO naively say that the Taliban should lay down their weapons for good and show the world their commitment to the peace process. Their statement was supported by Australia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, the European Union delegation, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Britain and the United States and NATO's senior civilian representative as reported at
One may disagree with what Pak PM Imran says about the present situation in Afghanistan and Pak’s role in it but he is right when he said that why would Taliban listen to Pakistan when they are sensing victory? Imran said that - “[ When there were 150,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan, that was the time to ask the Taliban to come to the table”. Imran said. “Why are the Taliban going to compromise when the troop exit date was given by the U.S., with only a few thousand American troops left? Why would they listen to us when they are sensing victory?” ]” as reported at https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistan-why-would-taliban-listen-us-when-theyre-sensing-victory
Imran is partially right (that when there were 150,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan, that was the time to ask the Taliban to come to the table), because merely arriving at settlement of Afghan government with Taliban is not enough unless secularism is enforced in Afghanistan because it is the Islamic theocracy which gives rise to militant Jihadis and organizations like Taliban. But Pakistan is also a Islamic theocracy hence it will never talk about secularism.
The West led by the USA does not understand that Taliban can’t negotiate peace for the simple reason that it will ultimately lead to some arrangement where Taliban will have to agree for elections in future in Afghanistan to decide the governments in Kabul. But Taliban can never come to power through elections because (though there are other ethnicities too in Taliban) Taliban is mainly Pashtun based (who are only 42 % in Afghanistan). Moreover during the last 20 years of the presence of the USA and NATO etc the liberalism has been experienced by women & younger generations hence even such Pashtuns will not support Taliban in elections. There is a commonsense view that Taliban will not like to lose power (which they got through barrel of the gun) on the negotiating table (by way of going for democracy / elections).
If due to any constrain Taliban agrees for any peace agreement which will involve elections in future to decide who will rule at Kabul then the ISIS which is already present in Afghanistan and which the USA has been trying to eliminate with the support of Taliban (as reported at https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/us-helping-taliban-fight-isis-top-general/163665/ ) will fill the gap especially given the fact that Muslims of this region are still inspired by the idea of Ghazwa-e-Hind and Islamic rule in Khorasan.
The journey of international militant Jihadi ISIS (unlike regional Afghani Taliban) for political control of Kabul and Khorasan will be made easy by four factors :-
(i)- Ghazwa-e-Hind / Khorasan factor inspires militant Jihadis from all across the world, in Pakistan too where not merely people like Zaid Hamid (red cap), Orya Maqbool Jan etc but in crucial province of Punjab also there is huge following of such ideology which was evident from the huge following of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) which assembled in November 2020 in Lahore at the funeral of its founder.
(ii)- Other provinces of Pakistan namely KPK (which like Taliban does not accept Durand line and is pining to unite Pashtun areas of Afghanistan & Pakistan), Balochistan (having ‘Free Balochistan Movement’) and Sindh (having Sindhu Desh movement ) are already having separatist and other movements out of grudge against Punjabi dominance. Hence for ISIS the possibility of nukes of Pakistan coming under the control of its militant Jihadis will be a crucial factor for realizing Ghazwa-e-Hind / Khorasan
(iii)- Due to financial / economic allurement & pressure of China the Taliban & the government of Imran both have shown leniency towards China on the issue of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province of China which ISIS will exploit to enforce Ghazwa-e-Hind / Khorasan in the region. This will be further facilitated (in favor of ISIS) by the Kashmir factor where even opposition parties are already saying (including in on-going election campaigns in PoK) that the Imran government and Pak military leadership have sold Kashmir to India especially on and after August 5, 2019 (when special status of J&K was repealed and State was bifurcated in two Union Territories).
(iv)- The traditional Shia-Sunni divide has been bridged in Afghanistan where Iran is asking Shia Hazaras to support Sunni Taliban hence the ISIS will also find it easy to recruit Shia militant Jihadis from across the world for realizing Ghazwa-e-Hind / Khorasan.
This raises an important and disturbing question that these are known to the US-led West & China also, then why are they allowing it especially when the situation can still be improved by enforcing secular-democracy in Afghanistan through redeployment of US- led Western forces in Afghanistan. There seems to be three possible reasons for it:-
(1)- Christians (notwithstanding human rights friendly preaching of Jesus Christ) and Chinese have records of killing hundreds of millions of innocent people in world wars (including in holocaust), communist movements etc hence they will not think twice before killing huge population of Muslims & Hindus in war / genocide.
(2)- Despite drama of being against China the way Corona (from China as alleged by the USA) has killed people immensely across the world the UN should have been moved by the so-called leader of free world the USA to constitute an ‘UN Inquiry Commission’ not only for getting investigated from where Coronavirus originated and how it spread in rest of the world by acts of commission & omission of various governments but also to suggest protocols & SOPs to be followed in future so that such pandemic (or bio-war) does not take place (There is a UN regime for stopping nuclear proliferation similarly there should be a UN regime to regulate laboratories all over the world whichever deals with such viruses). But neither the Trump-administration nor Biden-administration did it. There may be one more reason for leniency of the US-led West towards China. Huge global capital of the West is invested in China hence West does only 'noora-kushti' (fixed-contest) with China. Also due to the reason that veto power of the UN is between Christians and Chinese hence they may be trying to bring others (Muslims & Hindus) under Christians & Chinese.
(3)- Most of the world population (about 8 billion) is not needed as a productive force of mankind in this age of modern science & technology where artificial intelligence, thinking machines, robotics etc will make it easier to produce enough for mankind with merely half of the population of the world. Moreover Chinese consider Hindus and Muslims as rowdy & undisciplined people hence will not mind most of them to be eliminated by war preferable between Hindus and Muslims (which can easily be engineered by agitating chronic & gory Kashmir problem) . As far as Jews / Israel they have allied with Hindu India due to Muslim factor and if there are other possibilities of eliminating Muslims through war then they will gladly join Christians and Chinese in the said program starting from Afghanistan. As far as nukes with India & Pakistan it is no problem for Christians and Chinese and Jews (who are technologically very advance) to neutralize these especially in this age of electronic gadgets necessary for the use these nukes
In a nutshell the so-called leader of the free world, the USA doesn’t want to understand that the newly emergent power 'authoritarian Chinese democracy’ has every chance of gaining influence in any such country which practices authoritarian ideology in any form including ‘medieval Islamic theocracy’. In such a situation India can take the lead to install ‘federal-secular-democracy’ in Indian subcontinent (which effects India deeply in every way) from Afghanistan to Myanmar, starting from Afghanistan as mentioned at:- https://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/opinion-details/3854 or https://chauthiduniya.com/india-should-warn-taliban-of-military-help-to-secular-afghan-govt-if-doha-other-peace-talks-fail/ . But existing political parties in India are unable to understand the threat to the region and to Indians and some new political party may take time to emerge hence it will be interesting to watch such a menacing future in Khorasan & SAARC region with Holden-breath.
As per Chinese curse we are living in interesting times hence it will be interesting to watch whether Christians & Chinese will succeed in eliminating major part of Muslims & Hindus (which will take care of their itching for killing hundreds of millions in modern wars & ideological movements) or a better sense will prevail upon them which will inspire them to enforce secular-democracy in Afghanistan by way of redeployment of forces in Afghanistan (this time by constraining India to provide adequate numbers of personnel, military & civilians).