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Missiles over Jerusalem: Iran's Gambit, Israel's Response. By Gregg Roman, Middle East Forum
In this special Iran-Israel War update, we cover the latest developments in the escalating conflict between the two Middle Eastern powers.Iran's unprecedented direct attack on Israel, launching over 300 drones and missiles, marks a major shift in strategy after 40 years of proxy warfare. While Israel's air defenses limited damage this time, the attack highlights Iran's aggression and the high stakes of this shadow war turning hot.
We analyze what Iran aimed to achieve, the implications of Israel's response, and the complex dynamics shaping the future of this conflict. Will the West's calls for Israeli restraint embolden Iran's hegemonic ambitions? Can Israel find an effective balance between defense and proactive confrontation?
This edition also looks ahead to a post-Khamenei Iran, the prospects for regime change given widespread Iranian opposition, and the myths around Iranian moderation. We examine the roots of Iran's proxy power and how the U.S. and allies can combat it.
Finally, we invite you to join the Middle East Forum's exclusive 2024 policy conference, where you can discuss these critical issues with top experts and officials.
Get the in-depth analysis and insights you need to understand this pivotal moment in the Iran-Israel conflict - and what it means for the region and the world. Let's dive in.
Why it matters: The attack raises tensions in the Middle East and poses a significant threat to regional stability. It highlights Iran's aggressive actions and its disregard for international norms.
The big picture: This attack is part of the ongoing regional conflict, with Iran seeking to expand its influence and challenge Israel's presence. It adds to the complex dynamics of the Israel-Iran rivalry and the broader instability in the Middle East.
170 drones, specifically Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 models, can deliver small explosive payloads in self-detonating attacks.
120 ballistic missiles, including the Emad MRBM, Ghadr-1 MRBM, and Kheibar Shekan MRBM. These are Iranian-designed missiles with ranges between 900-1200 miles.
30 cruise missiles, specifically the Paveh model, which was introduced in 2023 and has a maximum range of 1,025 miles.
What's next: In response, Israel may retaliate with its own military strikes. Moreover, the escalation of hostilities could impact global energy markets and geopolitical relationships in the region.
Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a historic change in their long campaign against the Jewish state. The attack involved drones, cruise missiles, and surface-to-surface missiles launched from multiple locations. The Iranians abandoned deniability and chose to confront Israel head-on.
The big picture: Iran has been engaged in proxy warfare against Israel for 40 years.
It has gained de facto control over several Arab countries, creating a strategic advantage.
This attack is a culmination of their efforts to exert power and control.
What's next: Israel's response will not only involve military action but also a diplomatic campaign to navigate the international response. The ball is now in Israel's court to determine how to proceed.
The bottom line: Iran's direct attack signifies a departure from their previous strategy and puts them in a vulnerable position. Israel's response will shape the future dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
Despite trying to show strength, Iran's previous displays of weakness and recent attacks on Israeli officials in Syria have undermined its credibility.
The attack only caused minor harm to one Israeli, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Iran's efforts.
However, this failed attack has had unintended consequences.
It has rallied the US and top European powers to support Israel, shifted the focus back to defeating Hamas, and refocused attention on the Iranian nuclear threat.
In addition, it has pushed the Republican Party to accelerate aid for Israel and provided Israel with an opportunity to respond strategically.
Why it matters: This failed attack by Iran matters because it highlights the limitations of Iran's capabilities and the strength of Israel's alliances.
It demonstrates the importance of defeating Hamas and addressing the Iranian nuclear program.
The attack has also created an opportunity for Israel to strategically respond and potentially aid Ukraine in the face of Russian attacks.
Join the Middle East Forum's exclusive 2024 policy retreat in Washington, D.C., to shape the future of promoting American interests and protecting Western values in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Engage with elected officials, policy experts, and MEF staff to gain critical insights into Middle Eastern challenges and develop effective strategies to address them.
The big picture: Learn about MEF's 30-year journey, its goals, and the obstacles it has faced. Explore key issues such as Turkish President Erdoğan's impact, the Israel Victory Project's progress amidst the Gaza war, Iran's regional destabilization, and the evolution of Western Islamism.
The bottom line: This retreat offers a unique opportunity to connect with like-minded individuals, shape policies, and contribute to a positive influence in the Middle East while safeguarding Western values at home and abroad.
The April 13 Iranian attack on Israel aimed to deter Israel from targeting Iranian commanders, not to provoke conventional war.
Why it matters: Israel's new approach of striking Iranian forces, not just proxies, threatens Iran's 40-year regional strategy of proxy warfare.
The big picture: Through proxies, Iran now controls the land from its border to the Mediterranean, can disrupt Red Sea shipping, and uses the Palestinian cause to pressure Israel via Hezbollah and Hamas.
What's next: Iran's plan requires its targets to stay unaware. The U.S. and West, frightened by Iran's attack, want Israel to avoid further action. But inaction won't counter Iran's destructive ambitions.
The bottom line: Air defense alone isn't enough. Despite Western pressure, Israel must proactively challenge Iranian aggression and hegemony to ensure its own survival. Passivity as Iran grows stronger is unwise and dangerous.
The April 13 Iranian attacks on Israel had a surprisingly muted impact in Jerusalem, reflecting the city's familiarity with conflict.
Why it matters: The attacks marked Iran's shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation in response to Israel targeting Iranian commanders. If the attacks deter Israel from this new approach, Iran will have succeeded strategically despite tactical failure.
The big picture: Israel's air defenses performed well, but over-reliance on defense won't bring victory. Western calls for Israeli restraint align with Iran's aim to continue its regional takeover via proxies and nuclear program.
What's next: Israel's pursuit (or not) of Iranian officials will reveal if the attacks successfully deterred it. This will shape the future of the Israel-Iran conflict and regional dynamics.
The bottom line: While Jerusalem remained calm, the attacks' real impact lies in whether they reset the rules of Israel-Iran engagement in Iran's favor. Defense alone isn't enough; Israel must proactively confront Iran's hegemonic ambitions to prevail in this long war.
Iran's regime is unlikely to moderate after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death. The cast of characters vying for power are loyal to the Islamic Republic's ideology and will continue its path of Islamism and messianism.
Why it matters: The information is important for understanding that any hopes of a shift towards democracy or peace with the West are misplaced. Policymakers should be aware of the real intentions of Iran's future military dictators.
The big picture: The Islamic Republic's similarities to the Soviet Union suggest that any reforms in Iran could lead to a more aggressive foreign policy. The cautionary tale here is that any collapse of the current system may result in even worse outcomes.
What's next: Expect Iran's future military leaders to pursue the same old objectives, as they genuinely believe in their rhetoric and rely on the support of a significant portion of the population. The regime will continue feeding them both literally and ideologically through foreign adventures.
The bottom line: Abandoning Islamist ideology or diluting it would risk the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iran's new leaders are likely to become more ideologically driven and increase their foreign policy endeavors, continuing to pose challenges to global security.
Nicholas Krohley, founder of Front Line Advisory, discusses the U.S.'s limited approach to the low-intensity conflict with Iranian proxies in Iraq.
Why it matters: The U.S. has had fleeting successes in Iraq due to a narrow focus on targeting high-level individuals in militia networks, failing to address the roots of these groups in Iraqi society.
The big picture: The 2007-2008 surge and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani were successful but short-lived, as the U.S. did not follow up with non-military engagement to target the social, economic, and political foundations of Iranian influence.
What's next: To effectively counter Iranian proxies in Iraq and beyond, the U.S. must adopt a broader approach that combines military action with capacity building and support for civil society movements.
The bottom line: The U.S. needs to reassess its worldview and capabilities to develop a deeper understanding of irregular warfare ethics and align different instruments of power and influence in its fight against Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Iranian opposition leader Vahid Beheshti called for overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) during a Middle East Forum-sponsored talk on Capitol Hill.
Why it matters: Beheshti warns that 90% of Iranians oppose the regime, and international support for dissidents could lead to successful regime change.
The big picture: A nuclear-armed IRI poses an existential threat to the U.S. and its allies. Beheshti urges focusing on the source in Tehran rather than proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
What's next: Beheshti's message resonates with Iranian dissidents, as evidenced by banners in Tehran supporting his calls for Israel to help overthrow the regime.
The bottom line: The U.S. and its allies must act swiftly to support Iranian dissidents in overthrowing the IRI before the regime acquires nuclear weapons, which would make it too late to prevent catastrophic consequences.
The U.S. government is failing to grasp the severity of Iran's proxy threat, allowing it to escalate its malign activities unchecked.
Why it matters: This information is vital as it emphasizes the urgent need for the U.S. government to support the Iranian people in their quest for a democratic government and regional peace.
The big picture: A new report reveals Iran's direct control over its proxy network, highlighting the necessity of ending the Khomeinist regime to eliminate this threat.
The bottom line: It is crucial for the White House to prioritize the overthrow of the Islamic Republic to safeguard regional stability and protect American interests.
In a recent Israeli air raid, 16 Revolutionary Guardsmen were killed in Syria, signaling an intense escalation in Israel's ongoing bombing campaign.
The attack targeted Iranian targets in the province of Deir al Zur.
The conflict has shifted from being known as the 'war between wars' to a continuous state of conflict.
The big picture: Israel's bombing campaign aims to disrupt and frustrate Iran's efforts to establish a contiguous path through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. This illustrates the broader context of the ongoing conflict in the region.
What's next: Expect further escalations and potential retaliation from Iran. The recent killing of IRGC Quds Force Brigadier-General Mohammed Reza Zahedi adds to the potential for increased tensions.
Closing Thoughts
As the smoke clears from Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel, one thing is certain: the Middle East has entered uncharted territory. The shadow war between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies and covert operations, has burst into the open with a brazen display of Iranian aggression.
Israel's successful defense this time should not breed complacency. Iran's willingness to directly confront Israel marks a dangerous escalation, and its failure in this instance does not diminish its long-term ambitions or capabilities. The Islamic Republic's pursuit of regional hegemony, backed by its growing arsenal and network of proxies, remains an existential threat to Israel and a destabilizing force in the Middle East.
To navigate this perilous landscape, policymakers and the public alike must grasp the full scope of the challenge. This means understanding the roots of Iran's ideology and strategy, the depth of its influence, and the very real prospect of a future under more radical leadership. It means recognizing the limitations of defensive measures and the necessity of proactive, multi-faceted efforts to counter Iran's malign activities.
Most importantly, it means mustering the clarity and resolve to confront this threat head-on. The siren song of moderation and the allure of appeasement must not lull us into inaction. As the frog in the pot learned too late, the time to act is now before the water starts to boil.
The Middle East Forum remains committed to advancing this vital conversation and to forging strategies that secure the future of the region and the wider world. We hope you'll join us in this critical mission.
Until next time, stay informed, engaged, and resolute. The challenges ahead are great, but so, too, are the opportunities to shape a better future for all.
We analyze what Iran aimed to achieve, the implications of Israel's response, and the complex dynamics shaping the future of this conflict. Will the West's calls for Israeli restraint embolden Iran's hegemonic ambitions? Can Israel find an effective balance between defense and proactive confrontation?
This edition also looks ahead to a post-Khamenei Iran, the prospects for regime change given widespread Iranian opposition, and the myths around Iranian moderation. We examine the roots of Iran's proxy power and how the U.S. and allies can combat it.
Finally, we invite you to join the Middle East Forum's exclusive 2024 policy conference, where you can discuss these critical issues with top experts and officials.
Get the in-depth analysis and insights you need to understand this pivotal moment in the Iran-Israel conflict - and what it means for the region and the world. Let's dive in.
Why it matters: The attack raises tensions in the Middle East and poses a significant threat to regional stability. It highlights Iran's aggressive actions and its disregard for international norms.
The big picture: This attack is part of the ongoing regional conflict, with Iran seeking to expand its influence and challenge Israel's presence. It adds to the complex dynamics of the Israel-Iran rivalry and the broader instability in the Middle East.
170 drones, specifically Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 models, can deliver small explosive payloads in self-detonating attacks.
120 ballistic missiles, including the Emad MRBM, Ghadr-1 MRBM, and Kheibar Shekan MRBM. These are Iranian-designed missiles with ranges between 900-1200 miles.
30 cruise missiles, specifically the Paveh model, which was introduced in 2023 and has a maximum range of 1,025 miles.
What's next: In response, Israel may retaliate with its own military strikes. Moreover, the escalation of hostilities could impact global energy markets and geopolitical relationships in the region.
Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a historic change in their long campaign against the Jewish state. The attack involved drones, cruise missiles, and surface-to-surface missiles launched from multiple locations. The Iranians abandoned deniability and chose to confront Israel head-on.
The big picture: Iran has been engaged in proxy warfare against Israel for 40 years.
It has gained de facto control over several Arab countries, creating a strategic advantage.
This attack is a culmination of their efforts to exert power and control.
What's next: Israel's response will not only involve military action but also a diplomatic campaign to navigate the international response. The ball is now in Israel's court to determine how to proceed.
The bottom line: Iran's direct attack signifies a departure from their previous strategy and puts them in a vulnerable position. Israel's response will shape the future dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
Despite trying to show strength, Iran's previous displays of weakness and recent attacks on Israeli officials in Syria have undermined its credibility.
The attack only caused minor harm to one Israeli, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Iran's efforts.
However, this failed attack has had unintended consequences.
It has rallied the US and top European powers to support Israel, shifted the focus back to defeating Hamas, and refocused attention on the Iranian nuclear threat.
In addition, it has pushed the Republican Party to accelerate aid for Israel and provided Israel with an opportunity to respond strategically.
Why it matters: This failed attack by Iran matters because it highlights the limitations of Iran's capabilities and the strength of Israel's alliances.
It demonstrates the importance of defeating Hamas and addressing the Iranian nuclear program.
The attack has also created an opportunity for Israel to strategically respond and potentially aid Ukraine in the face of Russian attacks.
Join the Middle East Forum's exclusive 2024 policy retreat in Washington, D.C., to shape the future of promoting American interests and protecting Western values in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Engage with elected officials, policy experts, and MEF staff to gain critical insights into Middle Eastern challenges and develop effective strategies to address them.
The big picture: Learn about MEF's 30-year journey, its goals, and the obstacles it has faced. Explore key issues such as Turkish President Erdoğan's impact, the Israel Victory Project's progress amidst the Gaza war, Iran's regional destabilization, and the evolution of Western Islamism.
The bottom line: This retreat offers a unique opportunity to connect with like-minded individuals, shape policies, and contribute to a positive influence in the Middle East while safeguarding Western values at home and abroad.
The April 13 Iranian attack on Israel aimed to deter Israel from targeting Iranian commanders, not to provoke conventional war.
Why it matters: Israel's new approach of striking Iranian forces, not just proxies, threatens Iran's 40-year regional strategy of proxy warfare.
The big picture: Through proxies, Iran now controls the land from its border to the Mediterranean, can disrupt Red Sea shipping, and uses the Palestinian cause to pressure Israel via Hezbollah and Hamas.
What's next: Iran's plan requires its targets to stay unaware. The U.S. and West, frightened by Iran's attack, want Israel to avoid further action. But inaction won't counter Iran's destructive ambitions.
The bottom line: Air defense alone isn't enough. Despite Western pressure, Israel must proactively challenge Iranian aggression and hegemony to ensure its own survival. Passivity as Iran grows stronger is unwise and dangerous.
The April 13 Iranian attacks on Israel had a surprisingly muted impact in Jerusalem, reflecting the city's familiarity with conflict.
Why it matters: The attacks marked Iran's shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation in response to Israel targeting Iranian commanders. If the attacks deter Israel from this new approach, Iran will have succeeded strategically despite tactical failure.
The big picture: Israel's air defenses performed well, but over-reliance on defense won't bring victory. Western calls for Israeli restraint align with Iran's aim to continue its regional takeover via proxies and nuclear program.
What's next: Israel's pursuit (or not) of Iranian officials will reveal if the attacks successfully deterred it. This will shape the future of the Israel-Iran conflict and regional dynamics.
The bottom line: While Jerusalem remained calm, the attacks' real impact lies in whether they reset the rules of Israel-Iran engagement in Iran's favor. Defense alone isn't enough; Israel must proactively confront Iran's hegemonic ambitions to prevail in this long war.
Iran's regime is unlikely to moderate after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death. The cast of characters vying for power are loyal to the Islamic Republic's ideology and will continue its path of Islamism and messianism.
Why it matters: The information is important for understanding that any hopes of a shift towards democracy or peace with the West are misplaced. Policymakers should be aware of the real intentions of Iran's future military dictators.
The big picture: The Islamic Republic's similarities to the Soviet Union suggest that any reforms in Iran could lead to a more aggressive foreign policy. The cautionary tale here is that any collapse of the current system may result in even worse outcomes.
What's next: Expect Iran's future military leaders to pursue the same old objectives, as they genuinely believe in their rhetoric and rely on the support of a significant portion of the population. The regime will continue feeding them both literally and ideologically through foreign adventures.
The bottom line: Abandoning Islamist ideology or diluting it would risk the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iran's new leaders are likely to become more ideologically driven and increase their foreign policy endeavors, continuing to pose challenges to global security.
Nicholas Krohley, founder of Front Line Advisory, discusses the U.S.'s limited approach to the low-intensity conflict with Iranian proxies in Iraq.
Why it matters: The U.S. has had fleeting successes in Iraq due to a narrow focus on targeting high-level individuals in militia networks, failing to address the roots of these groups in Iraqi society.
The big picture: The 2007-2008 surge and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani were successful but short-lived, as the U.S. did not follow up with non-military engagement to target the social, economic, and political foundations of Iranian influence.
What's next: To effectively counter Iranian proxies in Iraq and beyond, the U.S. must adopt a broader approach that combines military action with capacity building and support for civil society movements.
The bottom line: The U.S. needs to reassess its worldview and capabilities to develop a deeper understanding of irregular warfare ethics and align different instruments of power and influence in its fight against Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Iranian opposition leader Vahid Beheshti called for overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) during a Middle East Forum-sponsored talk on Capitol Hill.
Why it matters: Beheshti warns that 90% of Iranians oppose the regime, and international support for dissidents could lead to successful regime change.
The big picture: A nuclear-armed IRI poses an existential threat to the U.S. and its allies. Beheshti urges focusing on the source in Tehran rather than proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
What's next: Beheshti's message resonates with Iranian dissidents, as evidenced by banners in Tehran supporting his calls for Israel to help overthrow the regime.
The bottom line: The U.S. and its allies must act swiftly to support Iranian dissidents in overthrowing the IRI before the regime acquires nuclear weapons, which would make it too late to prevent catastrophic consequences.
The U.S. government is failing to grasp the severity of Iran's proxy threat, allowing it to escalate its malign activities unchecked.
Why it matters: This information is vital as it emphasizes the urgent need for the U.S. government to support the Iranian people in their quest for a democratic government and regional peace.
The big picture: A new report reveals Iran's direct control over its proxy network, highlighting the necessity of ending the Khomeinist regime to eliminate this threat.
The bottom line: It is crucial for the White House to prioritize the overthrow of the Islamic Republic to safeguard regional stability and protect American interests.
In a recent Israeli air raid, 16 Revolutionary Guardsmen were killed in Syria, signaling an intense escalation in Israel's ongoing bombing campaign.
The attack targeted Iranian targets in the province of Deir al Zur.
The conflict has shifted from being known as the 'war between wars' to a continuous state of conflict.
The big picture: Israel's bombing campaign aims to disrupt and frustrate Iran's efforts to establish a contiguous path through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. This illustrates the broader context of the ongoing conflict in the region.
What's next: Expect further escalations and potential retaliation from Iran. The recent killing of IRGC Quds Force Brigadier-General Mohammed Reza Zahedi adds to the potential for increased tensions.
Closing Thoughts
As the smoke clears from Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel, one thing is certain: the Middle East has entered uncharted territory. The shadow war between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies and covert operations, has burst into the open with a brazen display of Iranian aggression.
Israel's successful defense this time should not breed complacency. Iran's willingness to directly confront Israel marks a dangerous escalation, and its failure in this instance does not diminish its long-term ambitions or capabilities. The Islamic Republic's pursuit of regional hegemony, backed by its growing arsenal and network of proxies, remains an existential threat to Israel and a destabilizing force in the Middle East.
To navigate this perilous landscape, policymakers and the public alike must grasp the full scope of the challenge. This means understanding the roots of Iran's ideology and strategy, the depth of its influence, and the very real prospect of a future under more radical leadership. It means recognizing the limitations of defensive measures and the necessity of proactive, multi-faceted efforts to counter Iran's malign activities.
Most importantly, it means mustering the clarity and resolve to confront this threat head-on. The siren song of moderation and the allure of appeasement must not lull us into inaction. As the frog in the pot learned too late, the time to act is now before the water starts to boil.
The Middle East Forum remains committed to advancing this vital conversation and to forging strategies that secure the future of the region and the wider world. We hope you'll join us in this critical mission.
Until next time, stay informed, engaged, and resolute. The challenges ahead are great, but so, too, are the opportunities to shape a better future for all.
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